Joseph Overton worked at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, a Michigan-based conservative think tank before his untimely death in 2003. Overton observed that there is a narrow range of political ideas that are broadly accepted by the public as normal discourse including ideas they disagree with. Beyond that range of ideas politicians and others get labeled extremist which makes it harder to maneuver as most of the public has prejudged such people. This became known as the Overton Window.
Overton proposed that this window moves over time—women’s suffrage, the end of prohibition, and gay marriage all suggest dramatic changes are possible. But the forces that wish to limit public discourse to a narrow range are so powerful that the seeming changes in the Overton window on certain subjects can often obscure a stubborn intransigence.
Climate change went from an obscure scientific phenomenon to being recognized as a central threat to civilization. Despite a broad scientific consensus and worldwide treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Accord, little actual progress has been made in addressing climate change. It is moving faster than ever.
In this context, two recent contrasting stories on climate change show how wide the Overton Window can appear to be without actually challenging anything fundamental in the current system.
The first story is about the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), a part of the U.S. Department of Treasury and an important bank regulator. The OCC has dropped its guidance for financial institutions on climate-related risks. That is consistent with the policies of the Trump Administration which regards climate change as a hoax. However, the big financial institutions regulated by the OCC are certain to have their own climate consultants who are helping those institutions model their risks. Those risks are being weighed whether the U.S. government agencies weigh them or not. But the government will no longer have its own independent assessment to compare to those produced by other organizations.
On the other end of the Overton Window is a “hair-on-fire” warning from a board member of one of the largest insurance companies in the world. The board member and former CEO of Allianz Investment Management, Günther Thallinger, minces no words. On its current trajectory climate change will destroy the insurance industry and “capitalism as we know it ceases to be viable.” Since almost nothing will be insurable—premiums will soar far beyond what companies and individuals can pay—one important pillar for capital markets, the insurability of risks, will largely disappear.
Despite Thallinger’s dire prognosis, he includes in his analysis a way out: “The good news is we already have the technologies to switch from fossil combustion to zero-emission energy. The only thing missing is speed and scale. This is about saving the conditions under which markets, finance, and civilisation itself can continue to operate.”
This is what has truly defined the seeming dire predictions from this end of the Overton Window on climate change. There is always a way out that will allow business-as-usual to continue, if only we would take it. The broadening out of media into social media and independent news and commentary sites since Overton’s death has allowed more extreme views to be heard that suggest a wholesale reorganization and downsizing of human society is coming whether we plan for it or not and the damage can only be mitigated if we recognize that continuous economic growth is not compatible with healthy planetary systems that support human life. But such views have clearly not captured the public mind or the political class.
The Overton Window is, of course, mostly concerned with political discourse. It is difficult to find any sizable group of politicians in any country who would embrace the idea that world consumption must go down dramatically over time in order prevent the destruction of global society by climate change. Such politicians do embrace the idea that climate change can be successfully addressed even as economic growth continues apace. That happy outcome, however, seems less and less likely with every passing day.
Flooded building and tree trunk in the muddy water of the Mekong in Si Phan Don, Laos, September 2019. By Basile Morin via Wikimedia Commons https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flooded_building_and_tree_trunk_in_the_muddy_water_of_the_Mekong_in_Si_Phan_Don,_Laos,_September_2019.jpg