Sweet, savory, raw, fried or baked. A main course, side dish, dessert or smoothie. Raise a hand: Who doesn’t have at least one fond memory of the world’s most widely consumed fruit, the banana? Maybe it’s because of its shape, texture or how easily it can be peeled and prepared (when it’s not eaten raw in three or four bites). The truth is that this fruit has enchanted the stomachs and hearts of people all over the planet. Today, more than 100 billion bananas are consumed every year. But this scenario may change as climate change becomes a threat to the production of this beloved fruit.

Globally, more than a thousand varieties of bananas are part of people’s diets. Of all these, the most widely traded is the Cavendish: according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), around 50 million metric tons of Cavendish bananas are produced every year. Some 20 million metric tons of bananas are exported annually, making it one of the largest tropical fruit export industries (between 2016 and 2018, the banana industry generated $6 billion). More than 90% of exported bananas originate in South and Central America, as well as the Philippines. The United States and Europe are the main importers, with millions of tons of the fruit arriving in their domestic markets each year.

The Cavendish variety is preferred by export chains for various reasons, such as high production yield in a small area and resistance to the stresses of transportation. However, there is a catch: The Cavendish banana has no seeds, meaning it is sterile. Consequently, the majority of bananas worldwide are clones. This makes them particularly vulnerable to diseases, specifically Fusarium Tropical Race 4 (TR4), a fungus that attacks the roots of plants through the soil. Once present, TR4 can wipe out entire crops.

It was this relationship between the global importance of bananas and their concomitant fragility that led Daniel Bebber, professor at the University of Exeter and lead author of a recent study published in the journal Nature Food, to research the fruit and the impacts of the climate crisis on its production. “Banana is an important export crop in several tropical countries, and a popular food in importing countries, but little is known about how climate change could affect production compared with other crops. In addition, the export market is dependent on a single cultivar, Cavendish, so there is little genetic diversity which makes the crop particularly vulnerable and therefore interesting to study,” he tells Mongabay via email.

According to the study, climate change and other associated factors may significantly limit the production of export bananas in the future. Using remote sensing, researchers mapped intensive Cavendish banana production in Latin America and the Caribbean to understand what factors may restrict the adaptation of these crops to climate change. The study conclude that rising temperatures, combined with socioeconomic factors such as population density and distance to port, will likely result in a 60% reduction in the area suitable for banana production for export between 2061 and 2080, under the climate projections of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 2-4.5, a set of scenarios researchers use to study how changes in society could influence climate responses in the future.

The study says that intensive banana production occurs in low-lying and hot regions with slightly acidic soils, as well as in areas close to ports and with high population density. Thus, to obtain the results, the researchers analyzed climatic factors (temperature and rainfall), socioeconomic factors (irrigation, population density, distance to port) and soil characteristics (elevation and pH). They found that including socioeconomic factors in the analysis resulted in an even greater likely reduction in the current and future suitable production areas than when only climatic and soil factors were considered.

Right now, the total optimal growing area in Latin America and the Caribbean for export bananas extends 3.3×10⁶ km2, according to the research. However, when socioeconomic factors are added, this area is reduced to 0.99×10⁶ km2. This scenario becomes even more significant when analyzing future climate projections. Considering only climatic and soil factors, the area suitable for bananas between 2061 and 2080 is predicted to be roughly 1.1×10⁶ km2. When socioeconomic factors are considered, however, this area shrinks to 0.4×10⁶ km2.

The researchers conclude that among the climatic factors they analyzed, temperature would be the only factor responsible for the loss of suitable areas, as the increasing temperatures will be harmful to banana yields. “This is particularly the case in dry regions, or regions which will become dry. In addition, extreme events such as hurricanes and storms can damage production, for example the Caribbean,” Bebber says.

The analysis is based on a scenario in which there would be no labor migration, port expansion or irrigation in the future. Therefore, the climate crisis will likely cause the areas most suitable for banana production to become more distant from regions that currently have sufficient irrigation and population density to guarantee labor, as well as becoming more distant from ports, which are essential infrastructure for the export chain. According to Bebber, “to continue production in these new suitable areas, we’ll have to ensure we have sufficient irrigation (in some places), workers, and transport infrastructure.”

Igor Rocha, a Brazilian agronomist who was not involved in the study, points out that the transport of products to ports and labor availability are factors that can be changed through investment in logistics and labor incentives. According to the researcher, with these measures, socioeconomic restrictions can be overcome and not harm banana production. “The study is relevant for producing countries to adapt and create mechanisms to deal with climate change and maintain the production of their agricultural crops,” Rocha tells Mongabay via text message.

Adaptation measures in Global South countries

One of the points highlighted by the researchers is that “the global latitudinal trend in wealth and technological capacity means that farmers in the Global South may be less able to adapt agricultural practices to cope with changing climate than their counterparts in wealthier countries.”

Sávio Gomes, a Brazilian researcher in food systems who was not involved in the study, emphasizes that countries in the Global South contribute less to the emissions that cause climate change, yet they suffer more from its impacts. “Here [in the Global South], there is often a lack of access to information, credit, technologies, and effective public policies. Countries in the Global North, such as Germany or Canada, have more infrastructure, financial resources, and planning,” Gomes tells Mongabay via text message. But for the most part, bananas don’t grow in the Global North — leaving the South to bear the brunt of climate change and its effects on this crop.

Bebber says that some measures to combat this difference between the Global North and South would be to ensure better and fairer prices for bananas. According to him, this would inject funding into the industry, which could contribute to adaptation measures, as well as the development of research and technology in the area. “Importers would ideally pay more for bananas to allow better conditions for workers and investment in production systems for resilience,” he tells Mongabay via email.

Understanding how climate change affects food production and developing strategies to address these consequences is crucial for ensuring food security for populations worldwide. According to Gomes, when a popular food like bananas becomes scarce or expensive, it affects the food and nutritional security of the population, especially the poorest.

Small farmers already adapting to changes

Although the study is limited to analyzing intensive banana production for export, comprehending the context in which this production take place is relevant to understanding how bananas will grow in the future, for both export and domestic consumption.

In Brazil, a country that is one of the world’s largest producers of fruit for domestic consumption, banana grower Paulo Néris has already noticed changes. For the past five years, he has been solely responsible for the family banana plantation, located in the city of Sabará, in the state of Minas Gerais, in southeastern Brazil. According to the producer, the banana plantation, which has been in his family for more than 180 years, grows different types of bananas. Some of them are of the Cavendish variety, but most are the banana prata, which is different from Cavendish. Prata is one of the names by which this banana is called in Brazil.

Néris is a small farmer engaged in a type of production not analyzed by the researchers. According to the study, small banana plantations could not be detected through remote sensing because they are generally “[…] in sparser, mixed cropping systems in which the banana canopy is difficult to distinguish from surrounding vegetation except at very high spatial resolution.” However, according to Bebber — and Néris — small farmers are also susceptible to the effects of climate change.

In 2024, the climate strongly influenced Néris’ plantation. “We had a severe drought and intense heat, and the harvest came early. So we had a bumper crop, followed by a huge off-season because all the bananas were gone,” he tells Mongabay via video call. But because family farmers use planting models that value crop diversity, they are more resilient to climate shocks, pests and economic fluctuations. Néris says that in more than a century of banana cultivation, no other banana species have ever been introduced to his plantation. “It is very resistant to pests,” he says.

Gomes emphasizes that one of the most effective strategies for adapting to the climate crisis is to increase food biodiversity, both in agricultural practices and eating habits. This is the case of Néris, who produces bananas using an agroecological model, without the use of pesticides. Those who buy bananas from his Prata da Marieta brand are consuming a product that, in addition to being familiar and sustainable, also carries affection and tradition in its history: “Marieta” is the name of Néris’ grandmother.

Néris’ story is an example of a relationship with food that goes beyond nutrition and also touches on places of memory and tradition. “It is not only what we eat, but how we prepare, share, and relate to food that reveals who we are,” says Gomes. Thus, bananas are an example of how the consequences of climate change affect not just the balance of ecosystems, but also different cultures around the world. This fruit is one of many foods that will continue to be affected in the coming years due to the climate crisis. “We need to work quickly to make food production systems more resilient to shocks, with a special focus on diversification,” Bebber says.

Banner image: In this file photo, men and women carry bananas and fish from the port in Leticia, Colombia. Research shows that distance to port is one factor in how export banana production might play out in the future, amid climate change. Image by AP Photo/Ivan Valencia.

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Citation:

Varma, V., Mosedale, J. R., Alvarez, J. A., & Bebber, D. P. (2025). Socio-economic factors constrain climate change adaptation in a tropical export crop. Nature Food, 6(4), 343-352. doi:10.1038/s43016-025-01130-1