Over the last several years, the Colombian government has taken steps to end oil and gas drilling in the Amazon. It pledged to stop issuing new exploration licenses and signed onto treaties to phase out current production, which has shown some signs of decline.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean that oil drilling will stop altogether, critics say. Active oil blocks can continue to operate, and inactive blocks without contracts remain legally available for future exploration.

“Ongoing and potential new fossil fuel activities in the region, encouraged by narratives around economic profitability and energy security, continue to threaten the livelihoods and human rights of Indigenous peoples and local communities, the region’s rich biodiversity, and its carbon sink,” warns a new analysis from Earth Insight, a nature and climate policy group.

So far, the government has granted 33 exploration permits and 14 production licenses in the Amazon, and maintains inactive blocks without licenses, together covering around 14 million hectares (34.6 million acres) — more than a tenth of the country’s total area — the group found in its analysis. But even if the government phases out current operations and maintains its pledge to issue no new licenses, there are still oil blocks on the map that haven’t been contracted out, as well as blocks that have been temporarily “shelved” but can still be reactivated.

Around 900,000 hectares (2.2 million acres) have been shelved and designated as “reserved areas” by the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH), meaning they’re unavailable to investors. But given the right political and economic circumstances, the government could choose to reactivate some of them for drilling, critics say.

Until now, the government has upheld its promise not to issue new licenses nationwide, but hasn’t formalized the ban with legislation. In a government report last year, officials made clear that contracting for new areas “could be resumed at any time.”

“While there is no significant fossil fuel activity taking place [on unassigned blocks], the Colombian government via the ANH could at any point open a process to accept bids from investors and developers to expand oil and gas activities into these areas,” the Earth Insight analysis says.

ANH didn’t respond to a request for comment for this story.

Active oil blocks already overlap with 4.4 million hectares (10.9 million acres) of Indigenous territory in the Amazon, where there are 320 Indigenous reservations, community councils and peasant reserve zones, according to the National Land Agency. Reclassifying reserved areas would push drilling deeper into those lands while also encroaching on about 800,000 hectares (2 million acres) of protected areas — a direct threat to one of Colombia’s most biodiverse regions, critics say.

Developing available oil blocks also poses significant economic risks, according to data from Rystad Energy, a research firm based in Norway. Operating costs are higher in remote areas like the Amazon, where it’s more difficult to install wells, pipelines and roads that meet environmental standards.

Break-even prices would also be harder to reach when faced with lawsuits from nearby communities and government fines for oil spills. Ultimately, Colombian consumers would have to pay higher prices or rely on government subsidies to keep costs at a reasonable level.

“The volatility of oil prices does not guarantee stability or energy sovereignty,” Lena Yanina Estrada, Colombia’s environment minister, told Mongabay in an exclusive interview last month.

Some officials still debate whether drilling in the Amazon could be a solution to meeting the country’s energy needs. Colombia will likely lose energy self-sufficiency by the end of the decade, with the government planning to increase oil and gas imports in response.

The Rystad model suggests that drilling in the Amazon to meet energy needs would likely cost more than importing and still fall short of meeting domestic demand.

According to Earth Insight, to end the debate, lawmakers should pass legislation that formally recognizes a ban on expanding oil and gas production in the Amazon.

The government should also prioritize renewable energy development and the creation of a timeline for fossil fuel energy decline. At the same time, it can expand protected areas and Indigenous territories while strengthening social protections for people living in the Amazon.

“This approach ensures a more resilient, inclusive, and forward-looking economy for Colombia and the Amazon than any future tied to declining oil and gas reserves,” the Earth Insight analysis says.

Banner image: A depiction of a gas flare in Putumayo, Columbia. (AP Illustration/Peter Hamlin)

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