The year 2024 saw significant developments in tropical rainforest conservation, deforestation, and degradation. While progress in some regions provided glimmers of hope, systemic challenges and emerging threats highlighted the fragility of these ecosystems.

Although a complete comparison of tropical forest loss in 2024 with previous years is not yet available, there are currently no indications that this year’s loss will be markedly higher. A sharp decline in deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon—partially offset by widespread forest fires—suggests the overall rate of loss may be lower.

This analysis explores key storylines that shaped tropical rainforests in 2024.

Previous year-in-reviews:

2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | The 2010s | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2009

Contents

Brazil | Suriname | Indonesia | Congo Basin | EUDR | Conservation finance | Carbon market | Biodiversity credits | Forest science | Remote sensing | 30×30 | Illegality in the Amazon | Politics

A respite in the Brazilian Amazon: Deforestation declines amid rising fires

The Brazilian Amazon experienced a notable decline in deforestation in 2024, offering a rare glimmer of optimism for the embattled rainforest. According to Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE), forest loss fell by 30.6% between August 2023 and July 2024, reaching its lowest level in nine years. The 6,288 square kilometers of rainforest cleared—a swath roughly the size of Delaware—marks the smallest annual loss since 2015.

The slowdown is part of a three-year trend attributed to increased enforcement against illegal logging and land grabbing under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration. Lula’s government has also made strides in promoting sustainable development and increasing protections for Indigenous lands, including reinstating demarcations. Nevertheless, critics argue that the administration’s environmental legacy is tarnished by policies permitting oil exploration near the Amazon River and the paving of the controversial BR-319 highway, which could accelerate deforestation along its route.

The encouraging deforestation data, however, is overshadowed by a surge in fires across the region. In September 2024, wildfires ravaged nearly 40,000 square kilometers—an 18-fold increase compared to the same month in 2023. Satellite data recorded a 70% rise in fire hotspots, often linked to land clearing during the dry season. While fires are not always classified as deforestation, their damage degrades forests and frequently precedes outright clearing.

Beyond the Amazon, other Brazilian biomes tell a mixed story. The Cerrado, a biodiversity-rich savannah, saw a 25.7% drop in deforestation—the first decline in five years. Meanwhile, fires devastated the Pantanal wetland, contributing to a rise in air pollution and health problems across South America.

The broader outlook for the Amazon remains precarious. Scientists warn that a combination of climate change, accumulated deforestation, and forest degradation is destabilizing the ecosystem. Southern and eastern parts of the rainforest are already experiencing widespread tree die-offs, a phenomenon that threatens to disrupt continental rainfall patterns and imperil biodiversity.  The 2023-2024 State of Wildfires report highlighted how rising temperatures and erratic rainfall rendered parts of the western Amazon up to 30 times more fire-prone than pre-industrial levels.

The ecological consequences are profound. Fires disrupt the Amazon’s critical role in generating and recycling rainfall, destabilizing the very processes that underpin the forest’s resilience. Scientists warn that nearly half of the Amazon could transition into a savanna-like state by 2050 if trends persist.

The challenge of balancing conservation with development persists. Lula’s administration has taken steps to combat illegal activities and launch restoration initiatives, but agribusiness interests wield significant influence in Brazil’s Congress, undermining key environmental safeguards. With fires intensifying and drought gripping the region, the Amazon’s future is fraught with uncertainty.

This year’s progress in curbing deforestation underscores the importance of vigilant policy enforcement. Yet the rise in fires and the broader pressures on the rainforest reveal the fragility of these gains. For the Amazon, a year of respite is but a pause in a long and complex battle.

Suriname: Major developments in 2024

Suriname’s courts issued a groundbreaking ruling, pausing agricultural expansion over 535,000 hectares of primary rainforest. Filed by twelve Indigenous and Maroon groups, the injunction cited the government’s failure to obtain free, prior, and informed consent for land use. This marks a precedent in a country that had previously not legally recognized ancestral land rights.

The halted Mennonite-led pilot program, initially part of a broader agricultural initiative, underscored ongoing tensions between conservation and large-scale industrial agriculture. Mennonite colonies elsewhere in Latin America have a history of large-scale deforestation, and their proposals in Suriname had raised similar concerns. The cancellation of the program was celebrated by environmental groups, yet critics warn that larger-scale forest clearing initiatives remain on the horizon.

Among the new proposals is a 35,000-hectare agricultural project involving the relocation of Mennonites. Divisions within the affected Kwinties Maroon community highlight the complexities of balancing development with cultural preservation.

Indonesia: A shift in priorities

For Indonesia, 2023 marked a year of mixed signals in efforts to protect tropical forests. The country’s primary forest loss rose 27% to 292,300 hectares, reversing years of declining deforestation. Despite this, the loss remained far below the alarming rates of the mid-2010s. Yet, with a new government at the helm, the sustainability of these gains hangs in the balance.

Under outgoing President Joko Widodo (“Jokowi”), Indonesia achieved a dramatic reduction in deforestation, reaching a low in 2021. Investments in fire prevention, stricter enforcement, and corporate collaboration in key regions like Sumatra played pivotal roles. However, fires in 2023, spurred by El Niño, underscored the persistent risks.

As Prabowo Subianto assumes the presidency after his election this year, concerns grow over his administration’s environmental priorities. Prabowo has pledged to continue Jokowi-era policies, including expanding biodiesel production and the controversial food estate program, both of which threaten to accelerate deforestation. Analysts warn that fulfilling biofuel targets could require converting millions of hectares of forest into palm oil plantations. Meanwhile, food estate projects have already displaced forests and Indigenous communities without delivering promised agricultural yields.

Indonesia’s nickel industry adds another dimension to the environmental challenge. The sector, critical to global electric vehicle supply chains, has fueled rampant deforestation and pollution, particularly in Sulawesi. Captive coal plants powering these operations contradict the country’s climate commitments, jeopardizing emission targets under the Paris Agreement.

The new administration’s reliance on carbon markets and reforestation as compensatory measures has drawn criticism. Activists argue that reforestation cannot replace the ecological services of primary forests, and carbon trading risks enabling continued emissions under a greenwashed guise.

Indonesia’s progress in curbing deforestation represents a rare success story in global forest governance. Yet, as policy shifts prioritize resource extraction and industrial agriculture, the fragile equilibrium achieved under Jokowi faces significant threats. The question now is whether Prabowo’s government will uphold the conservation gains of the past decade—or allow them to unravel under the weight of competing economic interests.

Congo Basin: Troubling trends for forests

Primary forest loss in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) reached a record 526,100 hectares in 2023. Driven by shifting cultivation and dependence on charcoal, deforestation reflects systemic poverty and energy insecurity, with 81% of the population lacking electricity. Industrial activity is also increasing.

Illegal logging persists despite regulatory measures, as weak enforcement allows significant timber exports. Conservation efforts, such as the DRC’s ambitious tree-planting program, have shown mixed success due to inadequate maintenance and governance.

Elsewhere in the Congo Basin, pressures on Cameroon’s Ebo Forest intensified. Despite international outcry, logging agreements threatened this biodiversity hotspot, home to endangered species and Indigenous livelihoods.

EUDR: Deforestation regulation delayed, but not abandoned

The European Union’s efforts to combat global deforestation through stringent regulation encountered a setback. On November 14th, the European Parliament voted to postpone the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) by 12 months, delaying its start until late 2025. Lawmakers initially considered amendments to dilute the regulation’s scope, including a controversial “no-risk” category for exempting certain countries from strict requirements, but this provision was ultimately canceled after facing widespread criticism.

The original EUDR aimed to ensure that commodities like palm oil, soy, and cocoa imported into the EU were not tied to land deforested after 2020. Non-compliant companies faced significant penalties. While the elimination of the “no-risk” category preserves the regulation’s intent to some degree, other changes and delays raise concerns about its overall impact. Critics warn that weakened timelines and enforcement measures could still undermine the law’s effectiveness in addressing deforestation.

The decision to delay implementation has sparked backlash from environmental organizations and developing nations. Activists criticize the postponement as a capitulation to influential agricultural and forestry lobbies, while some developing countries view the regulation as unfair and discriminatory. According to Trase, a group monitoring commodity trade, the EU contributes to deforestation abroad on a scale equivalent to an area larger than Greater London each year.

These developments also expose broader geopolitical dynamics. A report by Earthsight claims that members of the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), key advocates for delaying and weakening the regulation, received over €1.7 million in donations from companies implicated in deforestation. The changes represent a retreat from the EU’s environmental leadership, jeopardizing both its green credentials and trust in its commitments to sustainable trade.

When implemented, EUDR compliance will present significant challenges, as illustrated by Danone’s experience. Despite its strong environmental policies and support from executive management, the French dairy company faces difficulty achieving fully deforestation-free standards due to weak oversight by certification bodies. As a result, Danone has turned to direct supplier engagement and advanced monitoring technologies to improve traceability.

Innovations in financing forest conservation

Efforts to fund forest conservation saw significant developments in 2024.

The Republic of Congo launched the High-Integrity Forest (HIFOR) initiative, selling units representing hectares of conserved forest in Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park. These HIFOR units, unlike carbon credits, cannot be used to offset emissions but instead provide buyers with the opportunity to contribute to biodiversity, wildlife protection, and socio-economic benefits for local communities. This program integrates benefit-sharing mechanisms to ensure equitable outcomes, aligning conservation efforts with sustainable livelihoods. However, challenges remain, including the need for capacity-building and maintaining remote infrastructure to support conservation activities. If successful, HIFOR could serve as a model for other tropical regions.

At COP16 in Colombia, the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) was unveiled as a transformative financing mechanism. Designed to mobilize $125 billion in private and sovereign investments, TFFF provides an annual $4 billion in payments to tropical nations for forest conservation. Structured like a bond market, the facility ties returns to conservation outcomes verified through satellite monitoring. Penalties for deforestation ensure results-driven funding, while transparency is upheld by a globally recognized governing body.  However, critics questioned the mechanism’s reliance on uncertain financial returns: While investors are guaranteed a minimum return, benefits for tropical nations depend on investment performance.

Brazil’s leadership at COP29 in Baku introduced a complementary initiative to TFFF: The Tropical Forest Mechanism (TFM), which targets higher payments of $30 per hectare, backed by donations from the private sector. Both TFFF and TFM reflect new efforts to address the $1.3 trillion funding gap needed for effective tropical forest conservation.

Ecuador’s debt-for-nature swap marked another significant development in conservation financing in 2024. Facilitated by The Nature Conservancy, this $460 million transaction refinanced $1.5 billion in sovereign debt, redirecting $23.5 million annually over 17 years to fund the Amazon Biocorridor Program. This program aims to improve the management of 4.6 million hectares of protected areas while safeguarding an additional 1.8 million hectares of forests and wetlands. Incorporating Indigenous co-management, the initiative blends local knowledge with scientific expertise to strengthen ecological resilience.

Carbon markets face a reckoning

The voluntary carbon market faced significant scrutiny in 2024 as investigations revealed widespread shortcomings in the climate benefits of many offset projects. Market value plummeted from $1.9 billion in 2022 to $723 million in 2023, reflecting waning confidence. Verra, the world’s leading certification body, faced criticism over the integrity of its rainforest offset projects, prompting the resignation of its CEO and a rollout of stricter transparency guidelines. These revelations fueled lawsuits against companies accused of greenwashing, further eroding trust in the market.

Efforts to reform the market gained momentum. The Integrity Council for Voluntary Carbon Markets (ICVCM) and the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative (VCMI) introduced stricter criteria for credit integrity, emphasizing measurable and additional emission reductions. Advances in remote sensing and AI enhanced monitoring capabilities, improving the credibility of high-quality projects. Governments also took action. The United States released new guidelines to ensure that voluntary carbon credits align with decarbonization goals while respecting human rights and environmental standards.

Despite challenges, several initiatives offered hope to supporters of the forest carbon market. The Paris Agreement’s Article 6 framework gained traction, with Suriname becoming the first country to issue credits under a jurisdictional approach. The LEAF Coalition struck a $180 million deal with Brazil’s Pará state to preserve Amazonian forests. Private sector efforts also signaled cautious optimism. The Symbiosis Coalition, led by tech giants like Google and Microsoft, committed to purchasing 20 million tons of high-quality nature-based credits by 2030 to catalyze investment in robust restoration projects.

However, systemic issues remain unresolved. Critics argue that offsets distract from necessary emissions reductions and perpetuate environmental injustices. A study published during COP29 found that only 16% of carbon credits represent genuine emissions reductions. The sector faces a critical juncture: adapt and reform or risk irrelevance.

Biodiversity credits: A new frontier for conservation finance

Biodiversity credits are gaining traction as a tool for conservation funding, aiming to bridge the $700 billion annual shortfall by incentivizing projects that protect or restore ecosystems. Championed by the 2022 Global Biodiversity Framework, these credits hold promise for diverse habitats, from Kenya’s mangroves to Colombia’s Andean forests. However, while 2024 brought notable progress, skepticism surrounding their effectiveness also grew.

At COP16 in Colombia, the International Advisory Panel on Biodiversity Credits (IAPB) unveiled a framework for “high-integrity” credits, emphasizing measurable outcomes, Indigenous participation, and transparent governance. Unlike carbon offsets, biodiversity credits focus on creating “nature-positive” investments rather than enabling international offsetting. Colombia also approved the first voluntary biodiversity credit methodology, developed by Savimbo, which empowers Indigenous communities to earn credits by tracking species like jaguars. Proponents highlight such initiatives as pathways to strengthen local stewardship and safeguard ecosystems.

Still, the market is nascent. A 2024 report from the Pollination Foundation pegged total biodiversity credit sales at just $2 million—an amount far from the billions required annually. Certification bodies like Plan Vivo, Gold Standard, and Verra have introduced innovative approaches to measure biodiversity value, including tracking pollinator populations and monitoring habitat changes. Yet, standardization and trust remain significant hurdles. Critics point to the “fungibility” issue—restoring a flamingo habitat in Spain cannot replace protecting a bat habitat in Bangladesh—as a fundamental challenge, raising fears of greenwashing.

Governments and private actors are similarly divided. While nations like the UK and Australia are embedding biodiversity credits into policy, scandals in carbon markets have left private investors wary. Without clear demand or rigorous oversight, some fear the market risks replicating the failures of carbon trading, offering little real conservation impact.

Despite its potential, the biodiversity credit market remains an unproven experiment. Its future hinges on robust governance, equitable local participation, and demonstrable conservation outcomes.

Bolstering our understanding of the value of forest ecosystems

New research underscored the economic and ecological importance of tropical forests, challenging conventional views on land use and climate solutions. A study by the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) and Rainforest Foundation Norway (RFN) quantified the economic costs of deforestation in Brazil. Between 2006 and 2019, deforestation reduced soy and maize yields, costing farmers an estimated $1 billion. This decline stemmed from disruptions to the Amazon’s moisture-recycling system, which delayed the onset of the rainy season and reduced precipitation during critical crop cycles. In heavily deforested areas, maximum air temperatures rose by 2.5°C, exacerbating the loss of agricultural productivity.

Reforestation offers potential solutions. Researchers suggest that restoring 55,000 square kilometers in Pará could advance the rainy season’s onset by up to 19 days and deliver 152 millimeters more annual precipitation to deforested regions. However, skepticism among Brazilian farmers and agribusinesses remains high, with many dismissing these findings as “agri-phobic.” Advocates hope that emphasizing the financial toll of deforestation will bridge the divide between agriculture and conservation.

Another notable study highlighted forests’ role in absorbing methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Researchers at the University of Birmingham discovered that methane-consuming microbes in tree bark contribute significantly to mitigating emissions. This finding opens new avenues for nature-based climate solutions, such as planting tree species with high methane absorption potential in strategic locations. The study underscores forests’ dual role in climate regulation and biodiversity support, reinforcing their value in helping to address global warming.

Remote sensing advances

Technological advancements in 2024 dramatically enhanced forest monitoring capabilities, providing news insights into biomass and carbon dynamics. NASA’s GEDI mission, which employs lidar technology from the International Space Station, resumed operations six months ahead of schedule. By capturing three-dimensional images of forest structure, GEDI has significantly improved estimates of aboveground biomass and carbon storage. These data are particularly valuable in regions like the Amazon, where Indigenous territories and protected areas account for 61% of the densest carbon regions. Such information is critical for understanding the Amazon’s transition from a carbon sink to a potential carbon source.

Advances in AI-powered tools also bolstered monitoring efforts. A collaboration between Meta and the World Resources Institute produced a high-resolution global map of tree canopy heights, offering new details on forest restoration and carbon sequestration potential. These tools are filling critical data gaps in under-researched areas such as taiga-tundra transitions and agroforestry systems, enabling more precise conservation planning.

Satellite initiatives continued to democratize access to high-resolution data for conservation groups. Planet’s Project Centinela provided real-time analytics to biodiversity hotspots, helping local organizations monitor deforestation and habitat degradation. Microsoft’s SPARROW system, a solar-powered device using edge AI and satellite connectivity, enabled real-time biodiversity monitoring in remote areas. These innovations empower conservationists with actionable insights, even in the most inaccessible regions.

Competitions like the XPRIZE Rainforest showcased the transformative potential of emerging technologies. The winning team developed a drone-deployed canopy raft equipped with bioacoustic sensors, light traps, and DNA-sampling devices. This system identified 250 species and 700 taxa within 24 hours, demonstrating its potential to revolutionize biodiversity assessments. Such advancements underscore the pivotal role of technology in safeguarding tropical forests, transforming traditional approaches to monitoring and protection.

Biodiversity governance and the 30×30 Target

Biodiversity gained unprecedented visibility heading into COP16 in Cali, Colombia with a wide range of entities making commitments toward preserving life on Earth as we know it.

Among the summit’s achievements was the creation of a permanent body to integrate Indigenous Peoples into biodiversity governance. Recognizing that Indigenous territories harbor a large share of global biodiversity, this initiative represents a step toward more equitable conservation strategies. Another milestone was the establishment of the Cali Fund, which channels revenues from digital sequence information derived from genetic resources to local communities. Half of the fund’s revenues are earmarked for Indigenous and local groups, although corporate contributions remain voluntary.

Despite these successes, the summit exposed deep challenges. Talks extended into overtime, with unresolved issues on funding, monitoring, and implementing the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Pledges from developed nations fell drastically short of the $700 billion annually required to achieve the 30×30 target of protecting 30% of land and waters by 2030.

Notable initiatives aligned with 30×30 emerged throughout the year. African Parks, a South Africa-based NGO, unveiled a $1 billion plan to manage 30 critical protected areas across the continent by the decade’s end. Currently overseeing 22 parks spanning 12 countries, the organization’s expanded operations aim to address threats in 161 globally significant biodiversity areas. Papua New Guinea passed its long-awaited Protected Areas Bill, establishing a legal framework to protect 30% of its territory by 2030. The act emphasizes community engagement and alternative livelihoods for forest-dependent populations. In Honduras, the “Zero Deforestation by 2029” plan declared a state of emergency for forests, though critics highlighted regulatory conflicts and concerns over transparency.

Illegality in the Amazon

Illegal activities continued to plague the Amazon, undermining conservation efforts and exacerbating environmental degradation. An analysis found that illegal logging surged by 19% between mid-2022 and mid-2023 in the Brazilian Amazon. Nearly one-third of all timber harvested in the Amazon came from illegal sources, with Indigenous territories disproportionately affected.

Criminal networks increasingly combined illegal logging with other activities such as mining and drug trafficking. The Kakataibo Indigenous Reserve in Peru, established to protect isolated communities, became a hub for coca cultivation and clandestine airstrips, losing over 1,500 hectares of forest since 2021. Violence against environmental defenders also escalated.

Land grabbing in Brazil compounded the problem. Illicit activities were often masked through intermediaries, complicating enforcement and rendering fines ineffective. Despite strides under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, systemic governance failures and entrenched corruption hindered progress. Initiatives like the Amazon Security and Sovereignty Strategy aimed to bolster enforcement but often addressed symptoms rather than root causes.

Political shifts and tropical forests

Elections in 2024 introduced uncertainties in climate and conservation policies. Elections in the U.S., Indonesia, and Brazil signaled potential shifts in environmental priorities. These political transitions highlight the critical role governance plays in shaping the future of tropical forests.

Next week we’ll take a look at some storylines to watch in 2025.